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After nearly two years of steep declines, China’s photovoltaic (PV) module prices are now showing a clear upward trend. Recent shifts in supply dynamics, production policy, and upstream costs are driving this change, marking a new phase for the global solar industry.
Supply Tightening and Cost Recovery
China’s solar supply chain has entered a period of consolidation. Government efforts to curb overcapacity and promote “orderly competition” have led to temporary production cuts and stricter quality standards for polysilicon, the core raw material for solar cells. As a result, polysilicon and wafer prices have climbed, pushing module prices higher across both domestic and export markets.
Industry Self-Discipline and Policy Adjustments
Major manufacturers have reduced utilization rates following months of losses, restoring margin discipline to the sector. At the same time, the removal of certain export rebates and adjustments in government tender rules have created a more sustainable price floor. These changes have improved profitability expectations and encouraged longer-term planning across the value chain.
Global Market Impacts
According to recent analyst estimates, Chinese module prices are expected to increase by mid- to high-single-digit percentages in the near term, partially reversing the steep declines of 2024. Developers and EPCs worldwide are urged to revisit their procurement strategies—especially those relying on short-term spot purchases.
“After a period of irrational price competition, the market is normalizing,” said one Shanghai-based industry analyst. “This price recovery will support the financial health of manufacturers and stabilize supply reliability for overseas buyers.”
For global solar developers, this rebound signals the need for more flexible procurement and financing models. Fixed-price contracts, diversified sourcing, and phased purchasing can help mitigate volatility as the market adjusts.
The recent rebound in China’s module prices is less a crisis than a correction—an essential step toward a more balanced and sustainable global solar industry.
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